theglobalsun – Vietnam has officially scrapped its longstanding two-child policy amid growing concerns about its falling birthrate. State media announced that couples can now freely decide how many children to have and the timing between births. This policy reversal ends decades of government preference for one- or two-child families. The government hopes this change will encourage higher birthrates to support future economic growth and social stability. Vietnam faces challenges from an aging population and shrinking workforce, which threaten its long-term development plans.
History of Vietnam’s Two-Child Policy and Its Impact on Families
The two-child policy traces back to communist North Vietnam in the 1960s and expanded after reunification in the 1980s and 1990s. The first official family planning decree came in 1988, promoting smaller families nationwide. While enforcement was inconsistent, Communist Party members faced sanctions for violating the rules. The policy aimed to control rapid population growth but gradually led to a drop in birthrates below replacement levels. Over time, the government relaxed the policy in 2003 but reinstated strict limits in 2008, highlighting ongoing population concerns.
Falling Birthrates and Regional Variations in Vietnam
Vietnam’s birthrate dropped to a record low of 1.91 children per woman in 2024, below the replacement rate needed to sustain population size. The birthrate has steadily fallen from 2.11 in 2021 to 1.96 in 2023. Urban areas, particularly Ho Chi Minh City, face the sharpest declines due to high living costs and lifestyle changes. Ho Chi Minh City’s birthrate dropped to just 1.32 in 2023. Local governments offer financial incentives and awards to encourage childbearing, but these efforts have not reversed the trend.
Government Incentives and Measures to Encourage Larger Families
Vietnamese provinces are offering various rewards to motivate couples to have more children. Women who have two children before age 35 can receive certificates of merit and cash bonuses of about 1 million dong (£28). Some provinces, like Tien Giang in southern Vietnam, provide up to 30 million dong to communities that achieve high two-child family rates over three years. Despite these efforts, birthrates continue to decline. The government also plans to increase fines for fetal gender selection to combat a skewed sex ratio at birth.
Demographic Challenges and Regional Comparisons
Vietnam faces demographic challenges similar to those in nearby countries like Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, all experiencing falling birthrates. Japan recently reported births below 700,000 for the first time, signaling a broader regional issue. Vietnam’s gender imbalance remains a concern, with 112 boys born for every 100 girls. The government proposed tripling fines for sex-selective abortions to address this. Meanwhile, China ended its one-child policy in 2016 and now allows three children, yet its population still declined for the third year in 2024, showing the difficulty of reversing demographic trends.
